High School

This is a forecasting problem:

Year 1 = 3050
Year 2 = 4050
Year 3 = 3450
Year 4 = 3800
Year 5 = 3700

What is the absolute error for Year 4?

Answer :

Final answer:

The absolute error for Year 4 is 750.

Explanation:

The concept of absolute error is used to measure how off a predicted or measured value is from the actual value. In forecasting, the absolute error is simply the absolute value of the difference between the predicted value and the actual value. If we consider the given data as actual values for each year, the prediction for Year 4 would require a forecasting method. However, no method has been provided, so we need to assume a predicted value to calculate absolute error. A common approach for such a problem would be to use the mean of the previous years; hence, the predicted value for Year 4 would be the average of Year 1, Year 2, and Year 3. Calculating the average (3050 + 4050 + 3450) / 3, we get 3516.67 as the predicted value for Year 4. The actual value for Year 4 is 3800. The absolute error is then found by subtracting the predicted value from the actual value; 3800 - 3516.67 = 283.33. However, this seems incorrect as the question does not provide a prediction algorithm. If 3800 were the forecasted value and the actual value turned out to be 3050, then the absolute error would be calculated as the absolute value of 3800 - 3050, which equals 750. That would be the absolute error if the actual value was supposed to be 3050. Remembering to think about your answer and ensure it makes logical sense is a crucial final step in problem-solving.