Read the following case study and answer the question that follows:

Case Study: Stage 6 Load Shedding as Eskom Struggles to Keep Units Online

Eskom has pushed load shedding to stage 6 on Sunday due to continued breakdowns at its power stations. Stage 6 load shedding began at 04:16 on Sunday morning after a generation unit each at Kusile and Kriel power stations tripped. The power utility moved to stage 5 load shedding on Saturday after losing five units. A press briefing will be held at 10:00 to update on the situation.

Earlier this week, Eskom’s chief operating officer, Jan Oberholzer, said that the power grid is extremely vulnerable to breakdowns, and load shedding schedules can change at short notice. The COO stated that Eskom intends to ramp up maintenance in the coming summer months, which could lead to sporadic load shedding. He added that maintenance is a significant issue for the group, as it is not achieving the outcomes it expected. Some units return to operation after maintenance only to break down again soon after. He attributed the maintenance problems to a lack of appropriate skills and experience needed to address the issues.

The group recently published its load shedding outlook for the rest of the year, noting that it must keep unplanned outages below 13,000 MW to minimize rolling blackouts. In a scenario with heavy load shedding, if outages remain above 14,500 MW, stage 2 load shedding will be frequent for the foreseeable future. If the power utility cannot keep outages under 16,000 MW, load shedding at higher stages becomes the standard. Stage 6 blackouts equate to at least six hours without power per day, possibly in two-hour cycles. The last time South Africans endured stage six power cuts was two years ago.

The grid has been under pressure for the past week, with the power utility implementing rolling power cuts at short notice. This weekend, South Africans faced advanced power cuts with scheduled outages three times a day. Eskom COO Jan Oberholzer stated that stage 6 power cuts will persist, with heavy rolling blackouts expected for the week. Stage 6 will continue until sufficient generating units are returned to service. "Looking ahead, stage six load shedding will remain implemented until sufficient generating units are returned to service and those levels have been replenished. We have not yet been able to make a firm commitment as to when we will be able to ease the current stage of load shedding. I can assure the public of South Africa that the system is monitored closely," Oberholzer said.

Eskom said its teams were working around the clock to avoid a total system collapse by implementing stage 6 power cuts.

Question:

1.1 Examine how a fishbone (cause and effect) diagram could be used to assist Jan Oberholzer in identifying potential causes of why Eskom had to resort to stage 6 power cuts. (Diagram not required)

A fishbone diagram can be used to help Jan Oberholzer identify the potential causes of why Eskom had to resort to stage 6 power cuts. The diagram is also known as a cause and effect or Ishikawa diagram and is a visual tool that helps to organize and analyze potential causes of a problem.

The diagram consists of the problem statement on the right side and the branches represent categories of possible causes. These categories are usually 6 Ms - manpower, machines, methods, measurements, materials, and surroundings.

Here is how a fishbone diagram could be constructed to assist Jan Oberholzer:

Step 1: Problem statement

The problem statement is that Eskom had to resort to stage 6 power cuts due to breakdowns at its power stations. This would be written on the right side of the diagram.

Step 2: Categories of possible causes

The next step is to identify categories of potential causes that could have led to the problem. The categories that could be relevant in this case are:

- Machines: This category can include equipment malfunction or failure, inadequate maintenance, or outdated technology.

- Manpower: This category can include a lack of trained and skilled personnel to operate and maintain the power stations, or a lack of leadership to manage the maintenance operations.

- Methods: This category can include ineffective or inefficient processes for operating and maintaining the power stations, such as inadequate monitoring or planning processes.

- Measurements: This category can include errors or inaccuracies in measuring power usage and supply, leading to mismanagement of the power supply.

- Materials: This category can include shortages or issues with the quality of materials used to generate power, such as fuel supply issues.

- Surroundings: This category can include external factors that can affect power generation, such as weather conditions or external interference.

Step 3: Identify potential causes

Under each category, potential causes that may have led to the problem can be listed. For example:

- Machines: Poor maintenance, outdated equipment, equipment failure, or lack of investment in new technologies.

- Manpower: Inadequately skilled personnel, lack of training, or poor leadership.

- Methods: Inadequate planning and monitoring processes, lack of quality control during maintenance or operations.

- Measurements: Inaccurate power usage measurement, incorrect forecasting, or lack of data analysis.

- Materials: Fuel supply issues, poor quality fuel, or delays in supply chain delivery.

- Surroundings: Severe weather conditions, external interference, natural disasters, or vandalism.

By using a fishbone diagram, Eskom can identify the potential root causes of the problems and take corrective action to prevent future stage 6 power cuts.

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