High School

A bottling company marks a 0 for every bottle that comes out correct and a 1 for every defective bottle. Estimate the probability that the next bottle is defective.

Data: [tex]$00000000000000100000$[/tex]

Options:
A. [tex]$\frac{19}{20}$[/tex]
B. [tex]$\frac{1}{20}$[/tex]
C. [tex]$\frac{18}{20}$[/tex]
D. [tex]$\frac{0}{20}$[/tex]

Answer :

To find the probability that the next bottle is defective, we need to understand the pattern of how bottles are marked. Here’s how you can figure it out step by step:

1. Count the Total Number of Bottles:
The sequence provided is a series of numbers where each '0' represents a correct bottle and each '1' represents a defective bottle. Count all the numbers in the sequence. There are 21 numbers in total.

2. Count the Number of Defective Bottles:
In the sequence, count how many '1's appear. There is 1 defective bottle in this sequence.

3. Calculate the Probability:
The probability of an event is calculated as the number of favorable outcomes (defective bottles) divided by the total number of outcomes (total bottles).

So, the probability [tex]\( P \)[/tex] that the next bottle is defective is:

[tex]\[
P(\text{defective}) = \frac{\text{Number of defective bottles}}{\text{Total number of bottles}} = \frac{1}{21}
\][/tex]

4. Interpreting the Result:
The calculated probability is approximately 0.0476, which means there is about a 4.76% chance that the next bottle is defective.

Therefore, the probability that the next bottle will be defective is [tex]\(\frac{1}{21}\)[/tex]. This corresponds to approximately 0.0476, which is not exactly any option provided but closest to [tex]\(\frac{1}{20}\)[/tex] when considering typical rounding in percentage terms to two decimal places.