Answer :
To answer this question, we need to use the exponential smoothing formula:
Forecast for September = (1 - alpha) * Actual Sales in August + alpha * Forecast for August
Based on Scenario A, we know that actual sales in August were 200. We also know that the forecast for August was 200, since it is the initial forecast. Therefore, using the formula and an alpha value of 0.2:
Forecast for September = (1 - 0.2) * 200 + 0.2 * 200 = 0.8 * 200 + 0.2 * 200 = 160 + 40 = 200
Therefore, the forecast for September using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.2 would be 200.
To answer your question, we'll need the data from Scenario A, specifically the actual values from the previous months. However, since the data is not provided, I will explain the steps to calculate the forecast using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.2.
1. Obtain the data: Collect the actual values from the previous months.
2. Initialize the forecast: Choose an initial forecast value, which can be the first data point or an average of the first few data points.
3. Apply exponential smoothing formula: Use the following formula to calculate the forecast for September:
Forecast = (Alpha × Previous month's actual value) + ((1 - Alpha) × Previous month's forecast)
where Alpha is 0.2, and you'll need to plug in the appropriate values for the previous month's actual value and forecast.
4. Compare your result to the given options (a. 200, b. 205, c. 210, d. 215, e. 220, f. 225) and select the closest answer.
Please provide the data from Scenario A so that I can help you calculate the forecast for September.
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