High School

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------------------------------------------------ If Ranger Hal observes an eruption that lasted for 4.8 minutes, which of the following statements is true?

A. He can see lots of evidence of wait times of more than 70 minutes for the next eruption.
B. If he knows how long the last eruption lasted, then he can always exactly predict the waiting time to the next eruption.
C. He can see lots of evidence of wait times of less than 60 minutes for the next eruption.
D. There is no relationship between how long an eruption lasts and the waiting time to the next eruption.
E. If he looks at an eruption that lasted for 1.7 minutes, then he can see lots of evidence of wait times of more than 80 minutes for the next eruption.

Answer :

This question appears to relate to the mathematical analysis of patterns and probabilities, specifically concerning geysers, such as Old Faithful in Yellowstone National Park. This scenario describes how the duration of a geyser eruption might be used to predict the time before the next eruption.

The problem is about understanding the relationship between the duration of a geyser's eruption and the subsequent wait time until its next eruption. Here is a step-by-step breakdown of the information provided:

  1. If Ranger Hal observes an eruption lasting 4.8 minutes, he notes many subsequent wait times exceeding 70 minutes. This suggests a pattern or correlation where longer eruptions are followed by longer waiting periods.

  2. The bold claim that if Ranger Hal knows how long the last eruption lasted, he can exactly predict the next waiting time, hints at a deterministic system which is not typical unless more data is provided. Geysers usually have patterns but are not entirely predictable to that degree.

  3. Observations show that a 4.8-minute eruption may also result in waiting times of less than 60 minutes for some eruptions. This introduces variability and unpredictability into the system, suggesting that the correlation isn't strong enough for perfect prediction.

  4. A statement claims no relationship between eruption length and waiting time, which conflicts with the preceding points, indicating variable dependency, albeit not strictly deterministic.

  5. Lastly, it is observed that if an eruption lasts only 1.7 minutes, the wait time often exceeds 80 minutes. This suggests shorter eruptions tend to lead to longer waiting times.

In summary, the question challenges the student to evaluate different statements on the predictive relationship between eruption lengths and wait times. Generally, longer eruptions tend to be followed by longer waits, but variability exists in the pattern, and no correlation provides exact predictions.